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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 27 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model