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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model