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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 14-R.Gage to ATL 44 for 21 yards (25-K.Crawley).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model