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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 16:25 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NE
55.5%
MIA
44.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.205 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NE

Kyle Dugger S Out Hand
David Andrews C Questionable Shoulder
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Cody Davis S Questionable Wrist
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Thigh
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Knee
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Hip

MIA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
MIA 33

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 TD MIA (7:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 06:16 TD MIA (6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 11:14 FG MIA (11:14) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NE 0 – MIA 17
  • Q2 07:42 TD NE (7:42) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 25-B.Bolden left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 17
  • Q3 08:32 FG NE (8:32) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – MIA 17
  • Q3 04:37 TD MIA (4:37) 94-C.Wilkins and 77-J.Davis reported in as eligible. 28-D.Johnson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – MIA 23
  • Q4 11:00 FG MIA (11:00) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NE 10 – MIA 27
  • Q4 06:40 TD NE (6:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-B.Bolden for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – MIA 27
  • Q4 02:57 TD NE (2:57) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:03 TD MIA (:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers to NE 3 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-49-S.Eguavoen at NE 0. TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – MIA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:53) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy scrambles left end to MIA 43 for 1 yard (25-B.Bolden). PENALTY on NE-25-B.Bolden, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 43.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (11:14) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NE 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 42 for 11 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (4:30) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:08) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%

    (8:32) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (11:00) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:59) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 24 for 9 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

    (:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NE 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.