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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy scrambles left end to MIA 43 for 1 yard (25-B.Bolden). PENALTY on NE-25-B.Bolden, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model