4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NE 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP