Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 7

(5:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NE 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 42 for 11 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model