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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 25

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model