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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 57

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model