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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 54

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model