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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 45

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model