Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.196 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.054 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- JAX defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
JAX
NE
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:54 TD NE (5:54) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 13th rush TD of season, t-3rd most in franchise history. JAX 0 – NE 6
- Q1 02:21 FG JAX (2:21) 15-M.Wright 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-13-J.Scott. JAX 3 – NE 7
- Q2 12:07 TD NE (12:07) 37-D.Harris right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 14th rush TD of season, t-2nd most in franchise history. JAX 3 – NE 13
- Q2 04:46 TD NE (4:46) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 17-K.Wilkerson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 20
- Q2 00:52 TD NE (:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Jones 20th TD pass of season, new franchise record for TD passes by a rookie (Plunkett 19, 1971). JAX 3 – NE 27
- Q3 11:19 TD NE (11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 17-K.Wilkerson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 34
- Q3 02:45 TD NE (2:45) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 40
- Q4 11:50 FG NE (11:50) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th FG of season, t-4th most in franchise history (Gostkowski 2014). JAX 3 – NE 44
- Q4 07:14 TD NE (7:14) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 50
- Q4 03:56 TD JAX (3:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NE 50
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(2:21) 15-M.Wright 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-13-J.Scott.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:50) 13-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%
(5:03) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 7-T.Austin ran ob at JAX 12 for 3 yards (29-J.Bethel).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:22) 13-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NE 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%
(11:50) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th FG of season, t-4th most in franchise history (Gostkowski 2014).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 68%
(11:01) 13-J.Scott punts 40 yards to NE 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.