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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New England Patriots 44

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 13-J.Scott punts 40 yards to NE 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP