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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model