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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 49

New England Patriots 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 7-T.Austin ran ob at JAX 12 for 3 yards (29-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.44 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model