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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 13-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NE 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.46 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model