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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 13-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model