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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 15-M.Wright 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-13-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP