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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 25

New England Patriots 41 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th FG of season, t-4th most in franchise history (Gostkowski 2014).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model