4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYJ
25.0%
MIA
75.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.154 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.237 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.217 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than NYJ
  • MIA offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

George Fant T Doubtful Knee
Dan Feeney G Questionable Back
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Knee
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Questionable Ankle

MIA

Jevon Holland S Questionable Illness
Austin Jackson T Questionable Illness
Clayton Fejedelem S Questionable Ankle
Adam Shaheen TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 24
–
MIA 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:08 TD NYJ (7:08) 10-B.Berrios right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:33 FG NYJ (4:33) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 10 – MIA 0
  • Q2 13:47 TD MIA (13:47) 94-C.Wilkins and 65-R.Jones reported in as eligible. 28-D.Johnson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – MIA 6
  • Q2 09:30 TD NYJ (9:30) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 16 – MIA 7
  • Q2 02:02 FG MIA (2:02) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYJ 17 – MIA 10
  • Q3 09:52 TD MIA (9:52) (Shotgun) 28-D.Johnson right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – MIA 16
  • Q4 14:27 TD MIA (14:27) 65-R.Jones and 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 94-C.Wilkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-98-S.Rankins, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 17 – MIA 23
  • Q4 07:52 TD NYJ (7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – MIA 24
  • Q4 03:43 TD MIA (3:43) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 24 – MIA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NYJ 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (4:33) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 45-D.Riley).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:52) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to MIA 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Lewis. PENALTY on NYJ-41-J.Pinnock, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 17.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 55%

    (6:26) 28-D.Johnson right end to NYJ 33 for 6 yards (33-E.Riley).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:02) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:30) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to MIA 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-V.Smith.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:29) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to MIA 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:05) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to MIA 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%

    (1:12) 14-J.Brissett at QB. 14-J.Brissett left guard to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 54-R.Blair).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 22%

    (10:27) (Punt formation) 42-C.Fejedelem FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 44, RECOVERED by NYJ-98-S.Rankins at MIA 45.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:14) 7-B.Mann punts 63 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-T.Lewis to MIA 14 for 5 yards (41-J.Pinnock).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 88-K.Cole to NYJ 46 for 9 yards (24-By.Jones).