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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 14-J.Brissett at QB. 14-J.Brissett left guard to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 54-R.Blair).

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.49 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model