Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 55

New York Jets 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

(:30) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to MIA 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-V.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.51 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -1.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model