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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model