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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 63

New York Jets 24 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 88-K.Cole to NYJ 46 for 9 yards (24-By.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -0.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model