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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Jets 24 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 7-B.Mann punts 63 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-T.Lewis to MIA 14 for 5 yards (41-J.Pinnock).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model