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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 71

New York Jets 17 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to MIA 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model