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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Punt formation) 42-C.Fejedelem FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 44, RECOVERED by NYJ-98-S.Rankins at MIA 45.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model