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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -11.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
58.6%
NYG
41.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Mike Glennon (NYG): -0.244 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
NYG 18
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DAL

Tyron Smith T Out Ankle
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Foot

NYG

Daniel Jones QB Out Neck
Ben Bredeson G Doubtful Ankle
Austin Johnson DT Questionable Foot
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Calf
Leonard Williams DT Questionable Triceps

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 21
–
NYG 6

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:37 TD DAL (6:37) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 00:42 FG NYG (:42) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 10:34 FG DAL (10:34) 2-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – NYG 3
  • Q2 01:43 FG DAL (1:43) 2-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 12 – NYG 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 2-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 15 – NYG 3
  • Q3 12:10 FG NYG (12:10) 5-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 15 – NYG 6
  • Q3 02:03 TD DAL (2:03) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 21 – NYG 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (9:50) 5-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (:42) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (10:34) 2-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to DAL 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

    (1:43) 2-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:48) 28-D.Booker left end to DAL 35 for 31 yards (18-D.Kazee). PENALTY on DAL-18-D.Kazee, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (12:10) 5-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%

    (8:06) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to NYG 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:30) 2-M.Glennon up the middle to NYG 29 for no gain (96-N.Gallimore; 90-D.Lawrence).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:03) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to DAL 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (3:49) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass incomplete short left to 83-P.Cooper [94-R.Gregory].