4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 9

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass incomplete short left to 83-P.Cooper [94-R.Gregory].

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP