Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 76

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 21

(8:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to DAL 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.38 EP
57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model