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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 2-M.Glennon up the middle to NYG 29 for no gain (96-N.Gallimore; 90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model