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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 5-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model