4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:42) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model