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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 9 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 2-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.16 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model