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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DET
28.1%
DEN
71.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.144 vs Jared Goff (DET) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 18
–
DEN 25
Projected margin: DEN by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Julian Okwara LB Out Ankle
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Shoulder
D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder
T.J. Hockenson TE Doubtful Hand
Austin Bryant LB Questionable Shoulder
Charles Harris LB Questionable Illness
Alim McNeill DT Questionable Illness
Levi Onwuzurike DE Questionable Illness
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Illness
Matt Nelson T Questionable Ankle
Riley Patterson K Questionable Illness
John Penisini DT Questionable Illness
Penei Sewell T Questionable Illness
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Questionable Illness
Nicholas Williams DE Questionable Illness

DEN

Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Shoulder
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Hip
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 10
–
DEN 38

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD DEN (9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 00:57 TD DEN (:57) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 12:38 TD DET (12:38) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – DEN 14
  • Q2 06:39 FG DET (6:39) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – DEN 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG DEN (:02) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – DEN 17
  • Q3 11:09 TD DEN (11:09) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Woods]. DET 10 – DEN 23
  • Q3 06:38 TD DEN (6:38) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – DEN 30
  • Q4 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – DEN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:22) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to DEN 24, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 2 yards (18-K.Hodge).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:51) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 27%

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 41 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (6:39) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:11) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DET 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:16) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 11 yards (38-C.Moore; 89-B.Wright).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 84-S.Zylstra (93-D.Jones).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:14) 35-G.Igwebuike up the middle to DET 48 for 4 yards (55-B.Chubb).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DEN 15 for 19 yards (30-C.Sterns). PENALTY on DEN-30-C.Sterns, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (13:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 84-S.Zylstra (22-K.Jackson) [55-B.Chubb].

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:39) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for -4 yards (30-C.Sterns; 50-J.Griffith).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 50%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy to DET 20 for 21 yards (38-C.Moore; 52-J.Lemonier).