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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 95

Denver Broncos 31 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for -4 yards (30-C.Sterns; 50-J.Griffith).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 95, worth -5.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model