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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 84-S.Zylstra (22-K.Jackson) [55-B.Chubb].

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model