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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 56

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 35-G.Igwebuike up the middle to DET 48 for 4 yards (55-B.Chubb).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model