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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 50

Detroit Lions 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 41 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model