Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 63

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 14

(1:16) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 11 yards (38-C.Moore; 89-B.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.82 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model