Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 14 – Detroit Lions 7

(11:51) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model