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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 18

Detroit Lions 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 6-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model