CHI @ GB — 4th & Data

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Green Bay Packers

10-3 HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2021-12-12 · 20:20 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 11.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI

20.5%

79.5%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.188 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.225 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Justin Fields in place of Andy Dalton)
GB offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CHI offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
GB on 7 more days rest than CHI
GB defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18 11–25

–

GB 29 22–36

Projected margin: GB by 11 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

CHI

Cassius Marsh LB Out Knee

Andy Dalton QB Doubtful left Hand

Marquise Goodwin WR Doubtful Foot

Mario Edwards DT Questionable Ribs

Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Ankle

GB

David Bakhtiari T Out Knee

Randall Cobb WR Out Core

De'Vondre Campbell LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 30

–

GB 45

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:24 FG CHI (4:24) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – GB 0
Q2 11:17 TD CHI (11:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 17-J.Grant for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – GB 0
Q2 06:04 TD GB (6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 6
Q2 05:09 TD GB (5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 13
Q2 03:30 TD CHI (3:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 10-D.Byrd for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – GB 14
Q2 01:54 TD CHI (1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – GB 14
Q2 00:52 TD GB (:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 24 – GB 20
Q2 00:05 FG CHI (:05) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 27 – GB 21
Q3 09:28 TD GB (9:28) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 27
Q3 08:32 TD GB (8:32) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 34
Q3 02:55 FG GB (2:55) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. CHI 27 – GB 38
Q4 04:36 TD GB (4:36) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 44
Q4 01:26 FG CHI (1:26) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 30 – GB 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

(11:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(9:22) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CHI 22, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at GB 44 for 34 yards (7-C.Bojorquez).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

(4:24) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant to CHI 11 for no gain (42-O.Burks).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

(6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 27%

(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(6:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at CHI 48 for 13 yards (26-D.Bush).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

(2:55) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

(:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 22 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(13:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to GB 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 29 for 15 yards (22-K.Vildor).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 25 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

(1:26) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 27 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

(:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Sullivan [97-K.Clark] at GB 9. 39-C.Sullivan to GB 10 for 1 yard (11-D.Mooney).
See the full breakdown →

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