Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 68

Chicago Bears 27 – Green Bay Packers 38

(13:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to GB 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 29 for 15 yards (22-K.Vildor).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.87 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model