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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP