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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model