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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 38 – Chicago Bears 27

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 22 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model