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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 40

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model