4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 88

Chicago Bears 27 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at CHI 48 for 13 yards (26-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model