Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant to CHI 11 for no gain (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.12 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model